Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
